Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
